Russia Needs to be Careful of the Scope of Their Victory
By: Christopher Maffei
In a recent interview, EU Commission Chief von der Leyen, estimated that more than 120,000 Ukrainian men had been killed in action during the combined arms battles between both the northern and southern flanks of Kharkiv and Kherson. And adding to the catastrophic attritional rate, there has been an estimated 450,000 wounded in action.
In reality, that number is closer to 160,000 KIA in just 12 months of fighting.
For most people, they relate to (war) as the low intensity conflicts of the last 20 years. What people need to understand, This is not Afghanistan. This is not Iraq. This is not Vietnam.
This is a ―REAL― combined arms War.
To put this into perspective, at the height of the Vietnam War the fatality rate was averaging 200 Americans a week. That fatality rate was enough to bring the American domestic political situation to its knees
But the question becomes, how do we know the Ukrainian Army is on the precipice of defeat?
Recently, In an interview with the Economist, General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces said,
(paraphrasing) — “Yes, I can win the war, I just need 300 tanks, 500 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 artillery pieces, and virtually unlimited ordinance”
What Zaluzhny is really saying, he needs an Army―that does not exist. (and will never exist). Meaning, the NATO-Ukrainian defeat is a forgone conclusion.
What about American and NATO forces in Western Europe?
There are currently two American (combat effective) units that are holding the eastern fronts in Europe. First, is the 101st Airborne Division in Romania with approximately 4700 light infantry, and approximately 36 artillery pieces.
In Poland, there is the American Army’s 3rd Armored Brigade of the 4th Infantry Division with approximately 10,000 troops and approximately 300 tanks.
Opposing this force, is the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army as well as the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army. As you know, these are cold war Soviet formations that would have been deployed to fight NATO in the 1980s. Additionally, the 20th Guards is being reinforced with an additional 15 divisions of infantry and the 1st Guards is receiving thousands of additional tanks and thousands of additional artillery pieces.
In other words, the United States has abandoned Europe.
By all accounts, NATO doesn’t exist and we’re just pretending that it does. Many will ask, what about American airpower and close air support? The problem with this thinking, CAS will be ineffective due to the Russian multi-layered air defenses. American air power will be wiped out within a week and as we all know nuclear weapons can not win a war.
Of course, That does not mean that the American military does not have brave men and women. They are serving their country honorably. They are committed people with families. However, when you’re outnumbered 20:1 in armor, Infantry and artillery, it does not matter how brave and committed you are. It will be defeat on the battlefield.
In fact, its de facto defeat now.
Right now the humiliation of Washington and the American system is so serious, that Russia needs to be careful of the scope of their victory. This is so the madmen in Washington don’t contemplate the use of nuclear weapons to offset the current humiliation.
Russia needs to continue with their attritional tactics and slowly move into Ukraine from the North so that Volodymyr Zelenskyy can be deposed. This will give the possibility of a peaceful settlement and chance. We need to leave the young men and women of Ukraine alone so they can rebuild their shattered lives. They have sacrificed more than anyone could have expected them too and continuing this pointless conflict is immoral and cruel.
Of course, this is wishful thinking and Russia will probably not accept anything other than total capitulation.
―Chris