The Balance of Power has Shifted Dramatically
As defined by Freud, there are two states of any society. The first is Eros, the instinct for life, the quest to love, nurture, protect, and preserve. Much like present-day Norway. The second is Thanatos, which is driven by fear, hatred, and violence. It seeks the dissolution of all living things, including the individual citizen. You could see this effect in the late Roman period, late Byzantium, and now at the end of the American empire.
Freud said, “Either Eros or Thanatos is always ascendant”
He is right…
Thanatos, in America, has a long history, it is seen in the writings of Herman Melville, in his portrayal of Captain Ahab, and in the writings of Frederick Douglass. As a writer, Douglass made light of the atrocities of 19th-century cotton production in the Deep South. In many ways, this trade dehumanized the American soul and there has never been any real reconciliation or acknowledgment of healing.
But the Ghosts of Reconciliation will not be Held Back
The time has come, reconciliation is here and the horsemen of the apocalypse are galloping across the Great Plains right to Foggy Bottom. The American system is coming to its end and there is nothing that can be done to stop the coming atonement.
And even within Congress, the fear and panic are impossible to hide and there is manic desperation to place the world on pause. The representatives have come to realize that their military is nothing more than a vanity project and it has no more relevance than a Pixar Place Production.
What is Washington really afraid of? Washington fears and loathes their fellow Americans more than anything else. And as we have seen from the Twitter Files there is a desperate need to censor American military and cultural reality.
Unsurprisingly, censoring is having the opposite effect in America. Censoring is the antithesis of American cultural norms and this policy is leading to further collapse as trust in the institutions declines — rapidly.
The real question is, what is the real crisis in American power?
First, the American Navy was a powerful surface fleet. But, It no longer has enough frigates to patrol the vast expanses of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans. In the United States Navy, there are approximately 355 ships in inventory and there are about 120 ships out on the sea at any given time. In reality, the Navy needs 900 frigates for effective maritime patrols for security guarantees.
Therefore, there’s a list for this American protection racket and most countries are not on it.
However, the shortfalls in frigates pale in comparison to the next problem. Now, let us simply put American commercial maritime patrols aside for a moment and move right to the bone sobering reality of American — naval defeat.
The American Navy has a legacy doctrine that uses ships that are now obsolete-especially the carrier fleets. In the past, when the Russians hunted for American aircraft carriers with Tupolev Tu-95s. These Bears would stand off and hunt for American carrier groups in packs. Using carrier radio emissions as a source, the Bears would stand off for thousands of nautical miles and then vector their Backfires to target the American fleets with Kh-22s. American surface fleets did have a defense doctrine to counter the Tu-95-Gs hunting for them, But now these tactics have no more relevance than the carrier.
The Kh-22 has been replaced by both the hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircons. Now, when the Backfires hunt for American Carrier Groups they use Kinzhal hypersonics that speed along at Mach 10. Aside from these missiles sounding like weapons that would be used against Godzilla taking a Sunday morning swim in Yamamoto Bay. There is no defense against these platforms — flat out.
And in the words of Joe Biden, “As you all know, it’s a consequential weapon (…) it’s almost impossible to stop it.”
This means the United States Navy is theoretically defeated before it leaves port. Meaning all the trillions of dollars spent on this naval endeavor have been for nothing at the end of the day.
And it’s no wonder that Congress is so desperate to censor information…
In other words, if a (real) high-intensity conflict breaks out between Russia and the United States. Most of the 120 ships that are out on deployment will be at the bottom of the sea in 72 hours. The US surface fleet is irrelevant. In fact, it should just stay in port and should be scrapped. Look at it this way, it takes a 15 million dollar hypersonic to sink a 13 billion dollar aircraft carrier.
Does that sound like a fair exchange?
Probably not
It gets much-much worse. Not only is the American Surface Fleet nothing more than scrap metal at this point. In the context of land warfare. As I have written about many times before, the United States no longer has the ability to fight combined arms conflicts. For the last 20 years American doctrine has revolved around low-intensity conflicts, not high-intensity combined arms wars. If you really think about it, theoretically, the United States is defeated in all domains — including air power. With the possible exclusion of space.
How do we know this is true?
We can see this with the most important world leaders abandoning American foreign policy altogether — from Saudi Arabia to Brazil, and even Mexico.
To understand the world leader effect, let’s start with how the Prince of Saudi Arabia may view these events. When the Saudi Prince gets up in the morning and literally heads to his offices. The first thing he will do is sit down and read the daily intelligence reports.
And what he will be reading will read something like this: “ The United States can no longer provide security for Saudi upstream and downstream oil production due to the fact that the United States is in military collapse “
Of course, like any other Prince, he navigates to YouTube. From there he sees millions of homeless in the United States living in little blue and red tents. And riots that bring the American economy to its knees for months. He will see apocalyptic sacrifice zones in the United States where millions of homes have been abandoned, and burned out
But what the Prince is really concerned about more than anything else is the military defeat in Afghanistan. He realizes that the United States cannot hold up to *the American end” of the 1947 Truman Doctrine and provide security guarantees for his country.
He knows the scope and scale of the American defeat has never before been seen in world history. In fact, the sheer size of the defeat feels as if you are living in normality and everything seems like the day before yesterday. The American Media has worked very hard to divide and shape American perceptions. This has been relatively successful, however, this too is collapsing.
The Consequences of American Military Defeat
This is the American military reality at this moment. We do not have the ability to sustain a high-intensity conflict in Europe for more than 3 weeks. These numbers come from the Ukrainian attritional rate over the last 12 months.
With our current force ratios in Poland and Romania, if American ground forces were to engage Russian forces on the Caspian steppe, that campaign would be combat ineffective in 2 weeks and wiped out in 3 to 4.
If the American Navy fought both Russia and China on two fronts, the American Navy will be defeated with hypersonics.
Submarines will be the only platform that will be survivable.
If the United States Air Force were to challenge the Russian multi-layered air defenses over the region. The Air Force too would be combat-ineffective in 3 weeks — maybe two
If a peer-to-peer conflict were to start tomorrow — America would be defeated. This is not a secret, most countries fundamentally understand this reality. In other words, American force projection is non-existent and the Wolfowitz Doctrine is dead and so is American foreign policy. No one really cares what America thinks any longer — and this is precisely why the G7 and G20 have been abandoned.
The Consequences Of Collapsed American Foreign Policy
Without effective legitimate military force, American foreign policy requests will be ignored globally. In fact, in Oct 2022, when Joe Biden arrived in Saudi Arabia and requested that Saudi Arabia increase oil production. Not only was the American president not met by the Saudi King when he arrived. The Saudis ignored the request entirely.
The American requests for sanctions against Russia have been ignored by 3/4 of the global population. And without exception, every single African nation voted NOT to join the Russo-Ukraine proxy conflict.
This American irrelevancy will start to spread even more quickly as the dollar is abandoned in favor of the BRICS currencies. Along with sanctions, law enforcement requests will be ignored, and FATCA requests will become irrelevant. The grip that American power had on global output will slip over the next 24 months.
The rules-based order is being abandoned. What America thinks is just another voice in the world
Domestically, the endless money that funded American prisons, the courts, and the endless government programs will be severely limited and austerity will take hold. Pension funds will need to be realigned and the state policies of failure will need to be abandoned. America will be reduced to its preindustrial situation much like today. Finally, the American media’s control of reality will be completely broken and by the end of the decade, it will be clear to everyone that the United States will be just one minor power struggling with other blocks.
This miserable American empire is finally over and the arguments that feel important now will very soon fade into a dim memory.
— Chris
Speaking truth to power gets most writers canceled nowadays. Please don’t forget to get on my Substack mailing list so I don’t lose you. Its Free until 2025